ENSO risk monitor

Analogue years

Updated 28 Oct 2026, 09:52 UTC
Observed to Sep 2026 · CPC issued 8 October 2026

Analogue years against 2026 and its outlook

3-month rONI, January to the following December

Crop outcomes

The crop-year after each onset
Measure1982-832015-161991-921997-982023-242009-10
Cocoa yield, Côte d'Ivoire-11.5%-12.0%+9.4%+25.9%No data+0.8%
Cocoa yield, Ghana-28.6%+9.0%+29.7%-17.4%No data-8.2%
Coffee yield, Vietnam-33.5%-19.1%+37.6%+36.2%No data-7.1%
Coffee yield, Brazil+18.6%+14.0%-30.6%-5.3%No data+17.0%
Winter wheat production, Southern Plains (TX+OK+KS)No data+41.6%No dataNo data+10.3%+15.8%
Corn drought risk0.42 (rank 33 of 46)0.50 (rank 16 of 46)0.48 (rank 19 of 46)0.28 (rank 44 of 46)0.42 (rank 34 of 46)0.39 (rank 38 of 46)
Corn heat risk0.03 (rank 46 of 46)0.19 (rank 34 of 46)0.42 (rank 14 of 46)0.04 (rank 45 of 46)0.32 (rank 20 of 46)0.17 (rank 37 of 46)