Which views picked which years
Audit the choice
| Season | Views | mahalanobis | rule_band:tier1 | spread | zspace:cocoa | zspace:roni_only | zspace:sugar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1982-83 | 5 | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | |
| 2015-16 | 5 | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | |
| 1991-92 | 4 | ● | ● | ● | ● | ||
| 1997-98 | 4 | ● | ● | ● | ● | ||
| 2023-24 | 4 | ● | ● | ● | ● | ||
| 2009-10 | 3 | ● | ● | ● | |||
| 1972-73 | 2 | ● | ● | ||||
| 1986-87 | 2 | ● | ● | ||||
| 1994-95 | 2 | ● | ● | ||||
| 2002-03 | 2 | ● | ● | ||||
| 1957-58 | 1 | ● | |||||
| 1968-69 | 1 | ● | |||||
| 2019-20 | 1 | ● | |||||
| 2020-21 | 1 | ● | |||||
| 2024-25 | 1 | ● | |||||
| 2025-26 | 1 | ● |
Developing events, by crop
Phase match
Onset phase: developing in 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98; persistent in 2015-16.
Matched by crop: corn in 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98; soy in 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2015-16; cocoa in 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2015-16.
Counter-analogues: corn in 2002-03.
What happened in each analogue
Across the chosen years
| Season | NDJ rONI | Aug rONI | Ghana cocoa | Vietnam coffee | S Plains wheat | Corn drought risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1982-83 | +2.36 | +1.14 | -28.6% | -33.5% | No data | 0.42 (rank 33 of 46) |
| 2015-16 | +2.25 | +1.54 | +9.0% | -19.1% | +41.6% | 0.50 (rank 16 of 46) |
| 1991-92 | +1.97 | +0.83 | +29.7% | +37.6% | No data | 0.48 (rank 19 of 46) |
| 1997-98 | +2.28 | +1.84 | -17.4% | +36.2% | No data | 0.28 (rank 44 of 46) |
| 2023-24 | +1.40 | +0.79 | No data | No data | +10.3% | 0.42 (rank 34 of 46) |
| 2009-10 | +1.50 | +0.42 | -8.2% | -7.1% | +15.8% | 0.39 (rank 38 of 46) |
Crop columns are deviations from a log-linear trend over each whole series: yield for cocoa and coffee, production for winter wheat, in the crop-year after the onset year. Corn is the rank of the peak daily risk across 1980 to 2025, where 1 is the highest.