ENSO risk monitor

Analogue years

Updated 28 Oct 2026, 09:52 UTC
Observed to Sep 2026 · CPC issued 8 October 2026
Winter peak, NDJ rONI
+2.36
Finder class: very strong. The 2026 CPC expected value is +2.23.
rONI in August of the onset year
+1.14
2026 is +1.69.
Views in agreement
5
spread, rule_band:tier1, zspace:roni_only, zspace:sugar, mahalanobis
Onset phase
developing

1982-83 against 2026 and its outlook

3-month rONI, January to the following December

Crop outcomes

What happened in this analogue
MeasurePeriodResult
Cocoa yield, Côte d'IvoireCrop-year 1983-11.5%
Cocoa yield, GhanaCrop-year 1983-28.6%
Coffee yield, VietnamCrop-year 1983-33.5%
Coffee yield, BrazilCrop-year 1983+18.6%
Winter wheat production, Southern Plains (TX+OK+KS)Crop-year 1983No data
Corn drought riskSeason 19820.42 (rank 33 of 46)
Corn heat riskSeason 19820.03 (rank 46 of 46)