Monthly rONI reached +2.08 in September 2026. The multi-model median peaks at +3.34 in December 2026; CPC's expected value for NDJ is +2.23 on a 3-month mean.
Hover to read each month. Observed and model values are monthly; the CPC diamonds are 3-month means placed at the centre month, so they are not directly comparable. Data: enso_plume_2026-10.csv, cpc_strengths_2026-10.csv; paths and links are under Sources.
Read S3 with the platform-qa profile. A path ending in / is a prefix of many files.
| Source | Feeds | Link | S3 paths | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOAA CPC, rONI index | Observed 3-month rONI and the analogue paths | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt | s3://qa-treefera-greenprint-data/tmp_enso_2026/data/indices/ | |
| NOAA CPC, rONI strengths table | CPC expected value by season and strength probabilities | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/strengths/ | s3://qa-treefera-greenprint-data/tmp_enso_2026/data/cpc_forecast/ | |
| NOAA CPC, ENSO discussion | Context for the CPC forecast | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml | Page not stored; parsed fields are in cpc_forecast/. | |
| NOAA NCEI, OISST v2.1 | Daily Niño-3.4 and tropical-belt values | https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/optimum-interpolation-sst | s3://qa-treefera-greenprint-data/tmp_enso_2026/data/oisst/ | |
| NOAA NCEI, ERSSTv5 | Sea-surface temperature behind the monthly observed rONI series | https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/extended-reconstructed-sst | s3://qa-treefera-greenprint-data/tmp_enso_2026/data/sst/ | The chart reads the mirror below. |
| Zeke Hausfather, climate-dashboard | Monthly observed series and the multi-model plume (CFSv2, NMME, C3S, CanSIPS) | https://github.com/hausfath/climate-dashboard | s3://qa-treefera-greenprint-data/tmp_enso_2026/data/mega_plume/observed/ s3://qa-treefera-greenprint-data/tmp_enso_2026/data/mega_plume/archive/ s3://qa-treefera-greenprint-data/tmp_enso_2026/data/mega_plume/forecasts/ | Mirrored into this project. |
| Hausfather, ENSO methodology | How the plume is weighted and de-duplicated across models | https://github.com/hausfath/climate-dashboard/blob/main/ENSO/METHODOLOGY.md | ||
| NOAA CPC, CFSv2 | CFSv2, one of the four forecast sources | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml | s3://qa-treefera-greenprint-data/tmp_enso_2026/data/mega_plume/forecasts/CFS/ | |
| IRI Data Library, NMME | NMME, one of the four forecast sources; the full hindcast archive is held as zarr | https://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.NMME/ | s3://qa-treefera-greenprint-data/tmp_enso_2026/data/mega_plume/forecasts/NMME/ s3://qa-treefera-greenprint-data/tmp_enso_2026/data/enso-forecast/zarr/ | |
| Copernicus C3S, seasonal forecasts | C3S, one of the four forecast sources | https://climate.copernicus.eu/seasonal-forecasts | s3://qa-treefera-greenprint-data/tmp_enso_2026/data/mega_plume/forecasts/C3S/ | |
| mktippett, nmme-enso | NMME archive builder and the relative Niño-3.4 method | https://github.com/mktippett/nmme-enso | Code only, vendored into the repo. | |
| FAOSTAT | Cocoa and coffee yield | https://www.fao.org/faostat/ | s3://qa-treefera-greenprint-data/tmp_enso_2026/data/dashboard_export/ | |
| USDA NASS QuickStats | Winter wheat production | https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/ | s3://qa-treefera-greenprint-data/tmp_enso_2026/data/dashboard_export/ | |
| Treefera ag_risk | Corn drought and heat risk, daily by county | Internal | s3://qa-treefera-greenprint-data/ag_risk/runs/2026-09-06_conus_corn/archive/realised_risk_conus_corn.zarr/ s3://qa-treefera-greenprint-data/tmp_enso_2026/data/dashboard_export/ | The dashboard_export copy is the yearly summary used here. |
| Treefera analogue finder | Analogue years, views and phase matching | Internal | Not on S3. Repo files scripts/analogue_finder/outputs/, which make sync does not cover. |